MyRightWingDad.net

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or

prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am

neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a

well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of

predicting political races.

Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both

Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S.economy and brought us to

the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential

candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally

conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history.

Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don't

believe it's possible to turn around America.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking

political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them

as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year's Predictions. I

predicted back then-- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney

trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman

Cain to Newt-- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP

nomination by a landslide.

I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would

be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win

by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney

victory-- 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points

to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most

pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient-- common sense. Here is my

gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch

to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for

an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared

about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S.politics:

*African American voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group.

His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going

Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008.

This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group.

If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra

10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus locksdown Florida). This is not good

news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish

voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish

support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60s. This is not good news for

Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama's biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years

ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are

disillusioned, frightened, and broke-- a bad combination. Their enthusiasm

is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual

voting percentages. This is not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won't

happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the

Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic

Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around,

and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small

business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and

supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to "give someone different a chance."

I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone

who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private sector in a

big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends

didn't listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of

small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good

news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working

class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about

the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn't contraception.it's having a job to pay for

contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms. They are worried about

putting food on the table. They fear for their children's future. This is

not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by

24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they

disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?

Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying, "I didn't vote for

Obama 4 years ago. But he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote

for him today."

Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense

small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a

world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's

Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I'll give Obama credit for one thing-- he is living proof that

familiarity breeds contempt.

Wayne Allyn Root is a former Presidential candidate, the 2008 Libertarian

Vice Presidential nominee, and a Tea Party favorite.